New Opinion Polls

Steadman has today published new opinion polls that show a shift in voter preferences in the lead up to the General Election. The election date has also been announced. Voting day is 27/12.

The Steadman polls indicate that Raila Odinga's support has fallen from 53% to 50%, the incumbent Mwai Kibaki saw his stock rise from 37% to 39%. The ODM-K candidate had an 8% share of the respondents' support. These changes are within the margins of error and give the impression that not much has changed.

But do these really matter or are Kenyans minds made up? Will ODM's euphoric high be diminished by December 27? Are Kenyans paying more attention to the issues? Join the discussion here.

We also have our own poll. (You will find it at the bottom of the left hand side column of the homepage).

ODM nominations - video

The event of the past week was undoubtedly the ODM nomination at Kasarani that saw ODM candidate Raila Odinga crowned as the party's representative in the coming presidential election.

Watch the video here.

Constricted political space and forced allies

It was not a big headline, but it may count for more than is obvious. Former Cabinet Minister and Marakwet MP Linah Jebii Kilimo has packed her bags, left the ODM 'bash' and returned to support the government. I am not going to speculate on the exact reasons for the departure of the Marakwet legislator, who was famous not just for her courage in advocating the rights of women in her area before she came to Nairobi, but also for her resolution when she chose to quit the government and serve ODM. But it is curious that she should return now, to the very people and group she had previously made speeches against, and from whose grip she had sought to redeem her people.

More from Amir Ibrahim here.

Communal Psychoses :- truth or slur

Stephen Wanyama reacts to a recent article by UNY Professor, Makau Mutua on ODM-K Presidential Candidate and Lang'ata MP described what he called a psychosis among the Luo.

Is there such a thing as communal psychosis, he wonders.

Read more here.

Heckled in Mombasa - video

Here is a video report from a Kenya media house on the Mombasa rally that saw Mwingi North MP Kalonzo Musyoka humiliatingly shown off stage by a group of slogan shouting youths.

Readers are invited to comment on the event, and on its significance both to our general political culture, and to the possibility of reconciliation and unity in the ODM-K movement.

NARC (-K): All over the place -video

As ODM-K settles its issues out, even in shouting matches and pretend love-ins, their opponents on the right are far from settled. It is not even known what party the President will allign himself with in December.

Confused? There are efforts by Dr Noah Wekesa and Prof. Wangari Maathai to revive the election winning coalition in NARC, with party chair Charity Ngilu uncooperative. Then there are defections to Joseph Munyao's Democratic Party, and the wrangles in NARC-K persist. ODM-K would be smiling, if only they did not have so many problems themselves.

Watch the videos here.

Strawmen, Liars and Matches

Vitalis Oyudo takes us on a civics lesson questioning Kenyans who will not vote for Raila because of his tribe. In his assessment of ODM-K, Oyudo advises:

Now, there is obviously going to be competition in ODM-K, but this will have to be conducted wisely if the party is to survive in any form at all. The only victory that can come from the current state of affairs will likely leave even the victor badly hurt, much like our one-eyed neighbour above. Negative campaigning of the sort conducted against Kalonzo Musyoka all year does nothing but demean its proponents in the public eye. He certainly does not seem to have done anything to deserve it, and with a negative stereotype already attached to Raila, the keenness of this crusade against Kalonzo will only make the Mwingi MP look more like the under-dog, prevailing against the oppressive forces that far outnumber and outpower him. For many of us, Kalonzo has been turned from an outsider to a heavyweight challenger merely by the fact that Raila and his crowd hate him so much. We are now being forced to ask, to what is it they are so violently opposed?

Read more here.

Raila does not deserve this kind of treatment

Mwangi Muiruri assesses "undue" criticism on presidential candidate Raila Odinga. He says ODM-K, while with a large following, is headed the wrong direction with the wrangles for power at the top.

When the chips are finally down, ODM-K may go into the annals of history as the party with had the largest following, but squandered its huge advantage and lost a general election it. True, the referendum may have been a different ball game, but there is no denying that the momentum it initially gave ODM-K, has for most of the year simply been unassailable.

Read more here.

Mudavadi Tosha?

Dave Nyambati assesses Musalia Mudavadi's political career. Can he be the next president of Kenya?

A compromise candidate. No one currently in ODM-K fit that tab better than Musalia. Raila and Kalonzo (and others) trust Musalia to hold to whatever pact they concert on after the election more than they trust each other. They would also control the ODM-K base of MPs effectively checking Musalia’s power as the executive. What’s more, Musalia this time round would garner the support of the coveted Luhya community as a legitimate presidential candidate and is a much less polarizing figure to the rest of country than most of the other candidates. ODM-K would be able to hold its coalition, with Kalonzo and Raila appearing to have sacrificed their aspirations for the ‘good’ of the nation. Musalia may have the last laugh after all!

Read the rest here.

ODM-K Leaders hand in nomination papers

After weeks of wrangling over the composition of its electoral board, ODM-K members finally agreed on a team and began to hand in their nomination papers.

The formation of a nine member election board, to be chaired by retired justice Richard Kwach seems to have soothed concerns over the partiality of the board. It is not clear however that all the candidates have handed in their papers. The deadline has been set for Friday 25 th May.

Watch kenyaImagine's exclusive video as Raila Odinga hands in his nomination papers here.

Talking progress, finally

Kenyans go to the next election likely to be choosing between one of two large parties. They would do well to nurture and defend the evolving two-horse race of ODM-K & NARC-K and the continued existence of two strong parties. The evolving parties will be at the heart of an evolving democracy in the country and we will need to make the parties competitive and enhance the ability of each of them to offer divergent opinions on policies that will shape Kenya's economic and social Agenda. In all honesty , the recent introduction of free secondary schooling by the Kibaki regime would not have come by were it not for the ODM-K presidential candidates visions all pointing to this idea. This competition, a jostling for the public heart results in a government that tries to play catch-up with a strong opposition whose policy is driven by a development agenda.

Peter Ndiangui on the current political climate in Kenya, " Clearly a refutation of the old proverb about two elephants fighting. As the NARC-K and ODM-K behemoths jostle for the limelight and public approval, each fully aware that the slightest misstep could be punished by their large and powerful rival, the grass is singing."

Alert against sabotage of Raila's big day

The MP for Langata and ODM-K Presidential contender Raila Odinga has announced the date of the announcement of his vision for the country and the official launch of his bid for the Presidency.

From the elaborate planning and the effective manner of the public relations campaign, May 6^th 2007 promises to be truly an epic day in the history of modern Kenyan political campaign tactics, involving both live TV and Radio broadcasts. It is with this in mind that I feel obliged to offer a word of caution to his presidential bid team and Kenyans concerning this eagerly awaited day.

Anduru Owang writes on Raila's big manifesto launch and the possibility that it may be used to instigate propaganda against the Langata mp. Read the rest here.

ODM-K council to select Presidential Candidate

After months of haggling over what system was best suited for choosing its Presidential candidate to face Mwai Kibaki later this year, the ODM seem to be considering the idea of selection over election.

This controversial decision is the subject of our poll this week , you may vote on the bottom left of the homepage. We ask in our poll whether our readers prefer this system which some in ODM-K are claiming will ensure that the candidate who wins the party's blessing is one who can actually beat the incumbent, and do so by a wide margin.

Click here to share with other Kenyans what you think about the Kenyan presidential elections polls, and ODM-K's quest for a presidential candidate.

The lion and the fox

Love him or hate him the MP for Lang'ata and ODM-K Presidential Candidate is the man most able to animate Kenyan political society today. He may be in a far-off tour of Minneapolis making pronouncements on the stock exchange, or innocently attending his son's wedding party, contemplating a visit to London, being anointed by a local shaman or simply playing with his new toy; either way Kenya never seems to tire of him.

Vicious, unrelenting, concerted, often manic even; Kenya's media, online and offline have arrogated to themselves the role of deciding for Kenyans not just who to vote for, but also what to think, what to see and worst of all what to feel. When Raila or wider still any ODM-K candidate is the subject of the day's carving the knives seem to come out even sharper, ever readier. Slaves to their masters and their basest instincts, large swathes of the media have sought not to inform Kenyans, but instead to whip their passions into such frenzies as preclude any meaningful analysis of the candidates and party positions in this the run up to the second elections since the ouster of KANU.

Amir Ibrahim challenges the ODM-K leadership to step up and take on the national stage on national issues.