What Can the Exit Poll Tell us About the Kenyan Voter?

Exit polls, surveys taken of voters as they leave polling centers, provide the most comprehensive information on the issues, perceptions and attitudes that matter to voters selecting candidates for office. They are used worldwide to help scholars, politicians, parties and citizens understand these important characteristics of the electorate. First and foremost, exit polls seek to understand what determines why a person votes the way they do. What factors, including demographic characteristics and evaluations of government, contribute to the choice that citizens in a democracy make about their elected leaders? These matters are especially important in Kenya, where the transition to democracy has been long and hard-fought.

Read more from James Long.

What do PNU people really think?

On the Presidency
We do not believe that Mwai Kibaki is the legitimate president of Kenya but he is the legal president of Kenya.

On ethnicity--Hamisi's article features a slur against the Agikuyu, claiming that they do not want to compromise, that Mwai Kibaki would be disgracing himself if he compromised.

On the speedy, stealthy inaugurationThere was a real air of uncertainty surrounding the country at the time with riots and violence in the western city of Kisumu.

A combined article by Vitalis Oyudo and Stephen Wainaina. Read more here.

A country divided, I saw it on television

The 2007 General Elections in Kenya will be remembered in our history as the most contentious and violent elections. Underlying ethnic tensions came to the surface in a surge of violence that was transmitted live by our national television stations.

Those of us from relatively comfortable backgrounds witnessed the mayhem on screen from the comfort of our homes as the oppressed majority revolted against the current injustices surrounding the elections. This is my story as a witness.

Read more here.

Live Election Updates

Updated as it happens!! Get your news here, and a chance to discuss with other Kenyans the process and status of the elections.

Read here.

Why did we vote the way we did?

The results of the election are quickly coming in and reports from around the country indicate very high turnouts. However, it still not clear to me exactly what inspired voters around the country.

High turnouts are a traditional indicator that voters are passionate, that they are not apathetic, that they are involved and want to take charge of their destiny. I want to join with people around the country in their pride about this election, especially in the results on the parliamentary seats. I want to say we are a democratic people, that we have set an example for other third world countries, that all that is left is ensuring accountability, but was there any design to yesterday's vote, or were factors like tribe, manipulation and euphoria more important than an analysis of the candidates?

Read more from Amir Ibrahim here.

Keeping the promise, is it payback time for the Rift Valley?

The election results are still streaming in and Raila has taken what appears to be an unassailable lead though there are still those hopeful that there are another 3 or so million votes to be counted and these could turn the tables.

But that is not what I want to write about. As most readers will recall, following the 2002 elections, there was this continuous talk of how much the Agikuyu and President Kibaki owed Raila for his triumph over Uhuru Kenyatta. This was repeated so many times it was taken as the truth, and forms part of the casus belli that led to the fallout between the two politicians and their followers.

Read more from Kamale T.

Kenyan Elections Update

The Day After: Friday, 28th December, 2007
I have a racking headache this morning. Yesterday was a tough, nay, gruelling day. Yeah, and so much so. It was Election Day; the most competitive, much anticipated issue-based election since independence. I was among the last people at the polling station having stood in the hot sun for almost half a day. Read more here.

Election Updates
Have you any news on the elections? Please share it here. It needn't be anything untoward or alarming, although news of that will be very much appreciated also. Even news on the turnout, any delays in opening and so on is welcome. Are there enough observers about? Are there long queues? Do the Commission's officials look like they will cope with the hard work? Read here as Kenyans give their election experience.

Sources, sources
This post here has links to different websites that have updated data on the election.

Parliamentary votes, winners and losers
This election has some big losers. Who are they? Read more here.

Why I did not vote
I decided to boycott this year's elections. All the candidates running for both parliament and the president's office have been promising the world to the electorate when they know very well that they will not be able deliver nor will they make an effort to do so once assuming public office. Kibaki was the only one silent about the constitutional review and it's adaptation. Read more here.

Picha za Kura
Here are snapshots from polling stations in Kenya.

Too Close to Call

You could cut the tension in Nairobi with a knife, everyone seems to have taken sides and even those who have not, are fully aware that this is a high stakes affair with a sense of doom written all over it.

The air is rife with rumours, most of them about an attempt by the government to rig the election. Other topics of fervent discussion include allegations that the government will not hand over to the ODM should it be beaten on Thursday.

Read more from Maina Gichangi.

Opinion Polls in Kenya

Kenyans have never been very good at predicting election outcomes. In 1992, one Kenneth Matiba was widely expected to beat President Moi at the elections. The buzz about his campaign was like nothing the country had ever seen.

The amount of money he spent on the election was without parallel in our history. He also had the crowds, massive ones and these all over the country. Unlike the other opposition parties which were largely ethnic in their makeup, he had backers in all the provinces and was riding on a wave of euphoria that was truly gigantic. With charisma in buckets, he infected his supporters with such an enthusiasm they struck a real terror in the establishment's heart.

More here from Vitalis Oyudo on the impact of opinion polls on the Kenyan electorate.

Erase and rewind, I've changed my mind

A month before the elections, opinion polls keep showing a stubborn 3-4% of Kenyans that have refused to side with one side over the other. It is not hard to see why.

Read more from a Kenyan voter- Annette Keino.

Election Euphoria in Kenya

The Catholics Bushops Conference has elected to issue in the midst of the increasing bigotry, intra-religious turf wars and tribal & religious hate-mongering, a refreshing breathe of tolerance, soberness and secularism.

Read and discuss what the Catholic Bishops of Kenya had to say here.

In the matter of Emilio versus Amolo

On 27th December 2007, Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new President. New in this case means recently elected rather than elected for the first time. Yet, according to recent opinion polls, it could very well be that the word new may refer to both definitions.

There are two front runners for the post of President. The incumbent Mwai Kibaki is running on a party named the Party of National Unity whilst the main challenger Raila Odinga is running on a party known as the Orange Democratic Movement.

Read more here.

NAMLEF release Raila MoU

The National Muslim Leaders Forum has released what it says is the MoU entered into with Raila Odinga. It says the intention and objective of signing the MoU was to safeguard the interests and welfare of a section of the Kenyan Muslims that has undergone atrocities over the last 44 years.

Read more from Tony Gathungu here.

The Secret MoU

This week just gone I was subjected to the horror of listening in as my countrymen described how they would put us Muslims in our place if we ever got to try and implement our secret deal with Raila Odinga.

It would be dishonest to claim I was not angry. These were after all solidly middle class students, the kind of people that should properly be immune to the hateful propaganda machinations of the political parties. It is also true that as an agnostic with a nickname that does not betray my cultural background, those making these statements did not think I would be threatened by their invection. Perhaps they even thought it natural that I would be in agreement with their scheme, that I would offer up ideas on how to deal with the Islamic threat. Now hours later, I am left asking myself why this has come to pass. Have Kenyan Christians and Muslims not lived side by side in mostly sunny forbearance for aeons? What has changed?

Read more from Amir Ibrahim here.

Manifestos: Commitments on Paper

Now that all the major parties have released their manifestos, it is time to analyse them. At first glance they appear pretty similar with ideas like the doubling of the economy's size, maintaining a 10% growth or even better a 24 hour Nairobi City appearing in more than one document.

Read more on Kamale T's assessments.

Things fall apart, the danger of ODMnomics

There was once an African country that was the wealthiest in its region, it had the best-educated population and its factories produced the goods that filled the shelves in its neighbours' shops.

Then came a president who had new ideas, very passionately held, about how to make his country even wealthier. He said the country needed to develop its own style of government, one that was uniquely tuned to addressing its needs. He spent vast sums, upto 60% of the budget on mega-projects. As he had reversed progress made in revenue collection by previous governments, his new government had to inaugurate an entirely new regime at the revenue authority. At the same time, the authority's budget was cut into by the fact that there was much less in tax collections, the president having exonerated large sections of the working population from the tax burden. He nationalised companies that had previously been privatised and antagonised the financial markets with endless investigations and insinuations. Rent controls served to kill the fledgling property and mortgage markets.

Read more from Vitalis Oyudo.

Can Kibaki Still Win?

A closer study of the Kenyan political scene when read in conjuction with the recent polls by the Steadman Group indicates that with proper planning, President Kibaki can be beaten at the December polls but still win his seat back.

Read more from Kamale T.

Please Vote For Me

It's election season and the candidates and their parties are out in force putting their case to the public on why they would be best suited for government. This is democracy.

This year, starting October, a global campaign named Why Democracy? will be broadcast on television and the internet. It seeks to ask questions of the global population on their understanding of democracy and their perception of it as a solution to the problems of our times.

Join in on the discussion on democracy and elections.

Not the miracle man!

Mwingi South MP Kalonzo Musyoka was in his element last Sunday gone, buoyed along by the massive turnout to his campaign's official launch at Uhuru Park. The former long serving Kanu organizing secretary is arguably the best political propagandist the country has ever produced. He was as eloquent as always, even though little from the team he fronted, Bahari MP Joe Khamisi excepted, suggested that they meant in any way what they were pontificating.

Read here Solomon Gakungu's criticism of Kalonzo Musyoka.

Series on Interviews with Aspiring MPs

In these series, kenyaImagine ask a list questions of young Kenyans who are throwing themselves into the politcal ring. DO they represent a new Kenya? What problems stand in their way? Do they deserveto win?

Download a questionnare here to forward onto aspiring members of parliament.

The first of these is Ole Mepukori. Read his interviews here.